April 23, 2008
Clinton Cruises to Impressive Victory in Pa Primary, but what is all the talk about the New Clinton Math?
Clinton's stunning victory celebration in Pa in which she carried almost every region and demographic, is now developing into a fund raising event that is amassing millions overnight. The New Clinton Math equates into some real trouble for Obama, the frontrunner who can't close the deal on the nomination. The equation that will flash in the minds of many voters is very simple and adds up to a convincing argument in the minds of superdelegates who will ultimately decide this nomination.
The new math is 4-1=10+3. You may be asking, what kind of math is this? Let me now explain. Barack Obama has been crusading throughout this campaign boasting about the huge money advantage he had in this race, but money does not equate into a win, as he found out in a big way last night in Pa. Having been outspent by almost 4 to 1 by a bombardment of Obama ads across the state, he failed miserably to convince superdelegates that he can win important battleground states. Read This
How can you outspend your opponent by large amounts and lose by convincing numbers in a crucial swing state like Pa? Immediately following her impressive double digit-10 point victory the money started pouring into her campaign, raising more than 3 million in just a few hours. The argument that will be raised now going into Indiana in two weeks is a very important and legitimate one at this point in this race. Read This
What about those media pundits and pollsters who are now wiping the mud off of their faces this morning? These so-called political experts have relentlessly beat up on Hillary, proclaiming that she was finished and should get out of the race. The lesson they are learning is one that has resonated in recent contests, the more you beat up on a candidate, the more you will find yourself on the wrong side of the equation. Do I see some glum faces in the media circuits this morning?
Obama's big problem is that he has failed to close the deal with Democrats and must continue to spend his millions trying to convince voters and superdelegates that he is the candidate that can win in November. But he has a dilemma on his hands with White Blue-Collar, Catholic and Women Voters, as has been evident throughout this campaign. The bottom line is that they don't trust him and for good reasons. The Gun-Clinging comments hurt him with gun owners in Pa. The "God Damn America" remarks of Rev. Wright hurt him with regular church goers in Pa. His ties with radical fundamentalists such as "weather underground" disturb rural democratic voters. His connections with Rezko, a Chicago thug now on trial for fraud, raises question marks for many voters.
These are real questions that have and will continue to be raised about Obama, a virtual unknown that campaigns on "empty rhetoric" and acts as if the nations owes him the nomination. In this country you must earn your way and fight for what you believe in, as Hillary has demonstrated throughout this campaign. Yet Obama sits on his lead and acts as if this nomination is his to lose.
As the nomination process winds down, there are several things that will play out leading up to the Denver Convention. Obama's lead in delegates and popular vote will continue to erode, especially in states such as Kentucky,West Virginia and Puerto Rico where Clinton will win by large margins. Hillary will argue that she has won all but one of the largest states that are essential to victory in November. She will argue that if the Florida and Michigan votes are counted she has the lead in popular vote. She will argue that she is winning over Core Democratic groups, including Catholics, Women, Hispanics and White Men. Those are powerful arguments!
With the momentum on her side, Clinton will fight on and continue to put her opponent on display with the electorate, as one who cannot win against the Republicans, is not battle tested, and lacks the experience to solve the country's huge problems. Obama, on the other hand must face the music and explain to his voters why he can't close the deal despite his huge money advantage. Read This
Indiana will be a crucial state for Hillary in the next couple of weeks. The momentum and the support of key individuals and groups in Indiana will be a great help to her as she strives to convince undecided voters that she is a real fighter who will put their best interests at heart. So far she has lived up to the challenge, and has struck a cord with voters. Now we must sit back and see if she can continue to defy the mainstream media, the pundits and pollsters who say she can't win, and want her to quit.
The Pa Primary was a real test for Hillary, she proved that she can win to fight another day. For Obama he looked tired, defeated and unable to connect with the very voters he needs to win in November. Instead of facing the music and taking his lumps, he ran off to another state much like a puppy with his tail between his legs. Clinton's ad that ran in Pa in the last days leading up to the primary vote, must have struck a cord with many voters, "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the Kitchen." Well that is exactly what Obama did. Is that what Obama will do whenever he is confronted with a national crisis? Run for the hills!!
The more voters see and hear Obama on the stump, the more they wonder if he has what it takes to win. Lofty speeches and empty words don't equate into victory.
The New Clinton Math may at the end resonate with voters and the undecided superdelegates, despite the conventional wisdom that the candidate with the most pledged delegates or popular vote should get the reward.
When the momentum shifts and voters line up behind one candidate as they did throughout Pa, then voters have a tough decision to make. When the electoral map looks like it favors one candidate as it does for Hillary, then voters have a tough decision to make. When core Democrats,Catholics, Women,White Men,Senior Citizens, Blue Collar Workers,and Hispanics line up behind one candiate as they have with Hillary, then voters have a tough decision to make. When Reagan Democrats line up behind one candidate as they have for Hillary, then voters have a tough decision to make. When one candidate looks like his balloon is deflating as it does for Obama, then voters have a tough decision to make. When a candidate wins by double digit 10 point wins in all the rustbelt regions (Ohio, New Jersey, Pa) as Hillary has accomplished, then voters have a tough decision to make. When one candidate can only muster advantages among Blacks and voters under 25 years of age, as Obama is doing, then voters have a tough decision to make. When one candidate outspends the other by 4 to 1 margins and can't win, as Obama has shown, then the voters have a tough decision to make.
We now know and understand who the real fighter is in this race, the candidate who never gives in and never gives up. That is the kind of President this country needs and deserves. Not a candidate that runs on empty with no proven record. Yes the question mark has been raised and the equation is yet to be solved in this race, and may go unsolved all the way to Denver. Full Text Available Here
What is next for Obama after Double Digit Loss
More of the Same Obama Rhetoric?
CHICAGO – Barack Obama’s campaign continued to downplay their 10 point loss in the Pennsylvania primary this morning, arguing that they anticipated the results last night. “We don’t believe that the structure of the race has changed fundamentally,” said campaign manager David Plouffe, adding that they achieved their overall goal to cut down Hillary Clinton’s lead in the state.