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2/29/2008

Recent Polling Data Shows Serious Concerns About Obama's "Electability"

A Wake Up Call to Democratic Voters
Recent national data shows the surprising, even shocking, fact that Senator Obama runs weaker among Democrats vs. Senator McCain than does Senator Clinton. For example, in the last three national Gallup polls (January, early February and late February), Senator McCain wins more Democrats in a race against Senator Obama than he does in a race against Senator Clinton -- i.e., Senator McCain wins an average of 17%-19% of Democrats against Senator Obama, but only 10%-12-% average Democrats running against Senator Clinton.

And why is that? Here could be a key reason: According to a recent Washington Post/ABC survey, about 4 out of 10 primary voting Democrats in Ohio and Texas say that Barack Obama "does not have the kind of experience" necessary to "serve as president." This compares to Senator Clinton, who is seen by most voters as having superior experience to be president as compared to Senator Obama, even by his own supporters.

This should be an extraordinary and worrisome piece of data for all Democrats who most of all want to win back the White House in 2008. Imagine: if 40% of self-identified voters planning to participate in the Ohio and Texas Democratic primaries feel that way, then no wonder that Gallup's recent January and February polls show nearly one-out-of five Democrats supporting Senator McCain against Senator Obama. And those defections could well be indicators of similar defections come next November among moderate and conservative "Reagan Democrats" who did not participate in the low-turn out Democratic primaries and caucuses, as well as moderate and conservative Independents and Republicans.

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